Predicting the flu; MH17 conspiracy theories

Rachel Feltman, in The Washington Post (November 4), examined research in which a team, mostly from Los Alamos National Laboratory, headed by Kyle Hickman developed a model that enabled them "to successfully predict the 2013-2014 flu season in real time" by employing "an algorithm to link flu-related Wikipedia searches with CDC data from the same time." Apparently when individuals search for information about the flu and its symptoms in Wikipedia when they feel ill, this generates data useful in forecasting the flu season. Feltman also noted another study in April gathered similar results using data from Wikipedia.

Feltman wrote that the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) recognizes that it does not track the spread of the flu very well. This may be because many flu sufferers choose to weather it out at home rather than seeking medical treatment. Another factor is the time lag in healthcare providers reports to the CDC. This gives the CDC an accurate picture of the extent of the flu, but only about two weeks after the fact. Recognizing that there are better means of tracking the disease through internet searches and social media, the CDC has instituted a competition to find better flu models.

The MIT Technology Review (November 3) also covered the article. It quotes Hickman and his colleagues as saying that "Wikipedia article access logs are shown to be highly correlated with historical influenza-like illness records and allow for accurate prediction of influenza-like illness data several weeks before it becomes available," but that "since our model does not account for reinfection or multiple strains of influenza, the tail of the epidemic is not predicted well after the peak of flu season has past."

An abstract and a PDF of the original article, "Forecasting the 2013--2014 Influenza Season using Wikipedia", can be found here.

The International Business Times reports (October 26) on a new documentary from the Russian RT called MH17 - The Untold Story. The documentary claims that Malaysia Airlines Flight 17, which crashed in the Ukraine in July, was shot down by a Ukrainian Sukhoi Su-25 and presents Wikipedia edits it deems as suspicious.

In the West, it is generally accepted that Flight 17 was shot down by a Buk missile system operated by pro-Russian separatists. The New Republic reports that conspiracy theories denying this abound in Russia and are promoted by the Russian government and media. The most prominent theory, and the one proposed by the RT documentary, is that the flight was shot down by a Ukranian Sukhoi Su-25, a close air support jet widely used in Eurasian air forces. The New Republic cites edits to Wikipedias in multiple languages in support of this theory, some of them originating from Russian government and media organizations.

The problem with this theory is that the service ceiling of the Su-25 is 7000m according to its manufacturer. Flight 17 was flying at over 10000m before the crash. Russian military officials have claimed that the Su-25 can reach and operate at the higher altitude, and a number of Russian edits to Wikipedia have altered the maximum altitude of the Su-25 accordingly.

In the documentary, Peter Haisenko, a former Lufthansa pilot, supports the theory that Flight 17 was shot down by an Su-25 and claims that Wikipedia was actually edited to reduce the maximum altitude of the jet.

• The Daily Targum reports (November 6) on a Wikipedia workshop at Rutgers University about improving articles related to feminism.
• Lifehacker identifies "The Best Wikipedia Features Still in Beta" (November 5): hovercards, the other projects sidebar, HHVM, New Search, and VisualEditor.
• In Matter, Stephen Lurie discusses the Wikimedia Stewards, whom he calls "The 36 People Who Run Wikipedia" (November 5).
• The Northwest Missourian opines "Wikipedia doesn't deserve the flak it gets from professors" (November 5).
• The Enfield Independent notes (November 4) the deletion of a section called "Involvement in Expenses Scandal" from the Wikipedia article for Enfield North MP Joan Ryan, which was not the first time the material has been removed from the article. The October 29 edit, which was immediately reverted, originated from an IP address assigned to the Parliament of the United Kingdom.
• The Myanmar Times profiles (November 3) the Burmese Wikipedia and talks to its only currently active administrator. The Burmese Wikipedia currently has 32,314 Burmese language articles.
• In Time, Denver Nicks asks "Can Wikipedia Predict the Elections?" (November 3). He looks at article traffic statistics from http://stats.grok.se for candidates in the US 2014 midterm elections.
• ABS-CBN reports (November 3) on the vandalism of the Wikipedia article for Jejomar Binay, Vice President of the Philippines.
• Vocativ reports (November 3) on edit warring on the article of US Senator and election candidate Mark Udall.
• The Irish Independent talks (November 2) with Jimmy Wales.
• Lifehacker and other technology websites are reporting (October 30) on a new Google Chrome Extension called WikiTweaks. It simplifies the Wikipedia display by removing the sidebar and article warning banners, provides a mouseover preview like the Navigation Popups tool, and keeps a history of recently visited articles.
  
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